The MLS Cup playoffs begin today (probably less than 30 minutes after this post is published), and once again the leaders for most of the regular season may not make it to Frisco on November 12. What's more, of the top two teams in either conference - DC United, New England Revolution, FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo (or Dynamo Houston) - only the Revs are entering the playoffs on a hot streak. For that reason this round is especially hard to predict, and MLS clubs approach a two-leg series with a different mentality than teams in the rest of the world, so predictions are harder still.
The New England Revolution have a real chance to be what Los Angeles Galaxy were last season: a side that was inconsistent at times during the regular season but turned it on at the right time in order to win the MLS Cup. They took 17 of the final 21 points during the regular season, and the return of Shalrie Joseph will be vital to their hopes. Their series with Chicago looks to be a classic 2-3 matchup: very tight, very competitive, likely to last beyond 180 minutes. DC United and NY Red Bulls will be have a number of interesting storylines - Bruce Arena vs. Arena's former team, Josmer Altidore vs. Freddy Adu, Gomito vs. Amado - but DCU "should" win if they return to their previous dominating form. There were way too many conditionals in that last sentence, so this series is also up in the air.
I've thought since the middle of the season that the MLS Cup final will feature a team from Texas, but "Which team?" was the question. FC Dallas started hot, cooled off, and then staggered across the finish line. Fortunately they are facing a team that has also faded down the stretch (Colorado took only 5 of the last 21 points, Dallas took 6 of 21). Again, FCD should win this series, but there are too many other factors to say definitively that that will happen. As in the Eastern Conference, the 2-3 matchup is more competitive, but I think that the Dynamo have enough talent to take the series over Chivas USA (whose coach should win MLS Coach of the Year easily).
Overall, I think the favored team has about a 60% chance of winning the series, but if I were to put my head on the block and make a choice, I would pick DCU and New England in the East final, and Houston and FCD in the West. In five minutes the playoff begin, so the moment of truth will arrive soon enough.