This post is going to be the first in a three-part series, as I analyze the first-round matchups in the three CONCACAF World Cup qualifying groups. Being that most of the first-round participants are the smallest of the Caribbean countries, lots of good information is hard to come by (most of it was from Wikipedia). But I'll do my best and if I miss anything I trust you to contribute in the comments. If anyone from the federations want to give some input, that's welcome as well, whether by email or the comments. Without further ado, I'll start with Group 1.
Dominica vs. Barbados
The last time we heard from Dominica in the World Cup, they were providing less than token resistance to Mexico. They lost 18-0 over two legs, and they had to play their home leg in San Antonio because there were no home grounds that met international standards. Dominica will be able to play at home in this round, with the help of the Chinese (Windsor Park), but it still may not make much of a difference. They did draw Guadeloupe 1-1 in a friendly before the Gold Cup, which in light of Guadeloupe's success reflects well on them, but they haven't played a match since.
Barbados is a relative power in the eastern Caribbean and has a number of players who have played professionally in England (Paul Ifill, Mark McCammon, Gregory Goodridge), albeit in Division One/Championship level and below. However, they have plunged 30 places down the FIFA Top 100 in the past 12 months. Most likely that's because they haven't played a match in almost nine months, something that is very common among the small Caribbean nations.
Barbados has more players with international experience than Dominica, and I think that will make the difference at this stage of the qualifiers. I expect Barbados to go through.
Turks and Caicos vs. St. Lucia
Turks and Caicos lost to Haiti over two legs in WC 2006 qualifying (and I heartily recommend this article to experience what qualifying means to countries of this size), but this time they might have an easier time of progressing to the next round. TCI's best known player is Gavin Glinton of the San Jose Earthquakes, and with three goals he is the national team's all-time leading scorer. I was impressed with his play for the LA Galaxy in the second half of the MLS season, and hopefully he and his brother, Duane, can use their professional experience to provide leadership to a side that is predominately amateur.
St. Lucia also has a player with professional experience -- Earl Jean, who has played in Portugal, England, and Scotland -- but can he still make a contribution at 36? The lack of playing time will most likely work against the team (no matches of any kind in over a year), and I expect Turks and Caicos to advance to the second round for the first time.
Bermuda vs. Cayman Islands
An interesting match between islands that are attractive to tourists and those seeking offshore
banking. Bermuda has had a number of professional players in their ranks in the past, most notably Shaun Goater, and currently Khano Smith (Real Salt Lake New England Revolution) and John Barry Nusum (Philadelphia Kixx - MISL). Cayman Islands' side is very amateur and has suffered heavy losses in the past, but their biggest losing margin has been "only" seven goals. That record should remain intact, but Bermuda should advance.
Aruba vs. Antigua and Barbuda
Aruba are at the bottom of the FIFA rankings, and have neither won nor drawn a competitive match in over seven years. They have one player (Ronnie Nouven) who plays competitive football in the amateur divisions in the Netherlands. That's about all I know about them. I know this blog gets readers from Aruba -- anyone want to comment on their team? Antigua and Barbuda is not much better; two of their players tried out unsuccessfully for semipro English clubs.
This is admittedly a gut prediction but I have to believe that Antigua and Barbuda will defeat Aruba rather comfortably.