Preview of CONCACAF Semifinal Round: Group B

Continuing the preview of the CONCACAF semifinal round with Group B.  This is the group with Canada, Honduras, Jamaica, and Mexico.

This is by far the most difficult of the three groups to predict, and one very good team is going to be eliminated when this round is complete.  Home form is everything, and any points obtained on the road will be absolutely precious.

Mexico is the best team in the group, but the distance between them and the other three is not that great.  The challenge will be how quickly Eriksson  gets accustomed to his squad, and vice-versa.  Already he has made some callups that only he can get away with, like Matías Vuoso (born in Argentina and now a Mexican citizen). 

Honduras is a very talented team, and in David Suazo has perhaps the most dangerous striker in CONCACAF.  Their home form in recent qualifying cycles has been their undoing -- they lost three home matches in the 2002 Hexagonal (gifting Mexico the third and final qualifying spot), and failed to win a home match in the 2006 semifinal round.   With players like Pavón, Guevara, and Núñez over 30, this is Honduras' best and last chance for a while. 

Canada has improved tremendously in the last five years, and I think that MLS has played a role in that improvement.  (When people talk about the effect that Major League Soccer has had on the US national team, sometimes it's forgotten the effect that it has also had on the USA's opponents.)  They have a solid goalkeeping tandem and their midfield has some quality players, but where will their goals come from?  I believe it will be important for them to get maximum points from home because they might struggle to score on the road.

Jamaica are not the same team that Rene Simoes led ten years ago.  In some ways it is better in that more of their players are in foreign leagues other than England and the USA.   But the novelty and romance are long gone -- the last qualifying campaign was a step backwards, and the national side is struggling to fill key positions in midfield and defense.  In a group where home form is critical, "The Office" is not as difficult a place to play as it once was. 

Key games?  In a group like this, all of them!  But if I have to point to some matches that could go a long way to determining the group's destiny, I would choose the matches on the second and sixth matchdays.  After the second matchday, Canada and Jamaica  would have two consecutive away games and would need maximum points from their home game, and the top two may still be undecided by the sixth matchday.  I do believe that Mexico will win all of their home qualifiers -- Azteca provides them with such a home advantage that it takes the pressure off road qualifiers.  Or at least it should.  In light of Mexico's home schedule, I would have to say that their home qualifier against Honduras is a big game, too.  They are taking a gamble by playing their other qualifiers away from Azteca.

In the end, I predict the group will go like this:
1. Mexico
2. Honduras
----------------
3. Canada
4. Jamaica

I see a lot of home wins and/or a lot of draws.  Away wins will be rare and just might clinch a top two finish, but with the parity in this group there could be more.  I don't know if nine points will be enough to advance from the group.

UPDATE and CORRECTION: Eric informed me in the comments that Mexico won't be playing all of their home qualifiers at Azteca.  A look at the CONCACAF website shows that Mexico will play Jamaica in Puebla and Canada in Tuxtla Gutierrez (Chiapas). 

Comments

[Eric]

I could've sworn I heard that Mexico will be playing some of their qualifiers outside Azteca. Something about the rest of the country wanting to be able to watch their team.

And, as to "When people talk about the effect that Major League Soccer has had on the US national team, sometimes it's forgotten the effect that it has also had on the USA's opponents"... you may or may not remember my having said something like that back when MLS started, and it being something that I was actually looking forward to.

The US is now the #1 or 2 team in CONCACAF depending on how you measure it. Good enough that last time we were really barely tested in the qualifiers. For the US to get better and do well in the World Cup, it's critical to be more seriously tested. And that will only happen with having more than just Mexico as a threat.

So, yeah, it'll make me more nervous. But when the US starts regularly making it into the knockout rounds, it will be because CONCACAF qualifying is no longer a cakewalk.

[James Lagrange]

Group B Mexico, Canada, Honduras, Jamaica

We always have to start with the 7 time Concacaf title holder. Mexico is always good at playing in tight areas. They do not panic and always play with confidence. The have a great playmaker in Pavel Pardo. They have a plethora of strikers most notably C Blanco of the Chicago Fire. The ever present Sanchez guards the net. They play in Estadium Azteca where they rarely lose. They can score in bunches at home.
Canada has come a long way in the last 5 years. They have the ageless Pat Onstad in the net. The defense is anchored by the Captain Paul Stalteri of the Premier League Totterham. The midfield has 2 very creative playmakers in de Guzman and de Rosario. Finally Canada can score in Ali Gerba, Rob Friend and Iain Hume who all play in Europe. They play a very direct, European style, which contrast the other 3 team in Group B.
Honduras always turn out good teams but never seem to reach their potential. Honduras is led by David Suazo who play for Inter. In the Middle is the Captain Amado Guevara who has over 100 caps for the national team. The entire team is good with the ball and excel on 1 on 1. Their stadium Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano is located in San Pedro Sula and it holds 40,000.
Jamaica round out this group and many consider them the best out of the Caribbean. Rene Simoes the Brazilian manages this flamboyant team. He wants them to be creative and have fun. Their fans are as flamboyant as their team and they come out in force when they have a good team. The Reggae Boyz are their nick name and 12 out of 18 apply their trade on foreign soil. They are hard to beat at home if they get a lead.
I see Mexico because they rarely lose at home emerge with Canada. Canada can play a well organized defense and finally they have scorers. Honduras will take a game lightly which will be their downfall. Jamaica will entertain us.