At the end of Matchday 5, four teams have secured their places in the knockout stage of the CONCACAF Champions League. The permutations in each group are complicated and I'm bound to get something wrong, so please bear with me.
I'm just focusing on what teams have to do to secure a top two place in their group.
Group A
DC United are eliminated.
Cruz Azul are in the last eight if they avoid defeat against Saprissa.
If Saprissa draw against Cruz Azul and Marathón draw against DCU, then Saprissa must avoid defeat in the rescheduled match on 5 November in order to advance, while Marathón must win by 1-0 or at least a two-goal margin to advance. If the final match ends 2-1 to Marathón, then they would go through on goal difference. If Marathón are victorious by a one-goal margin but Saprissa score two or more goals, then the Purple Monsters would go through on away goals.
If Saprissa draw and Marathón win, then Saprissa must win the final group match. Marathón would only need a draw in that scenario.
If Saprissa draw and Marathón lose, then Marathón must win on 5 November while Saprissa only need a draw.
A Saprissa victory by less than four goals and a Marathón draw would require the Green Monsters to win the final match to go through at the expense of Saprissa. A Saprissa victory and Marathón loss would require Marathón to defeat Saprissa by two goals (a Saprissa goal would add another goal to the required margin) in order to advance.
If Saprissa and Marathón win, then both teams could kick the ball around for 90 minutes, and a draw in their final match would see both teams go through at the expense of Cruz Azul.
Group B
UNAM are in the knockout stage. San Francisco FC are eliminated.
Everything comes down to the Firpo-Houston match on Tuesday night. If Firpo win, they secure a quarterfinal place. Any other result sets up a winner-take-all return match in Houston on 26 November. A draw requires that Houston win the return match to advance (conversely, a Firpo draw to see them advance), and a Houston victory requires at minimum a draw (conversely, a Firpo win) in the final match.
Group C
The only group where the top two places are secure. Montreal and Atlante are going to the knockout stage; Joe Public and Olimpia are eliminated.
Group D
Santos Laguna are through to the last eight. I had thought that Municipal were still alive, but even if they pull level on points with Puerto Rico and Tauro, they would lose the away goals tiebreaker to Tauro. So Municipal are eliminated.
It comes down to the Tauro-Puerto Rico match on Wednesday. If the match has a definite result, the winner goes to the quarterfinals. If the match ends in a draw, things get complicated and whoever advances will depend on the Municipal-Santos result.
In case of a goalless draw: if Municipal fail to win, Puerto Rico advance because they would have the head-to-head advantage over Tauro (4 points to 1). If Municipal wins, then Tauro would advance because they would have scored more away goals than Municipal and Puerto Rico in matches played between them.
In case of a score draw: if Municipal fail to win, Puerto Rico advance on head-to-head advantage. If Municipal win, Puerto Rico also advance because they would have scored at least as many away goals as Tauro and also hold the head-to-head advantage.
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