More takes on the Hexagonal schedule

I've had more time to look at the Hexagonal schedule, and I have some additional thoughts.  Perhaps it would have been better to post this in the week following the draw, but not much is happening between now and February, anyway.  I believe that in order to analyze the Hexagonal properly, it's important to consider not only the sides in the competition, but also the order in which the matches are played. 

To start, below is a table of the home and away patterns for all six teams in the Hexagonal.  (For the uninitiated, H = home and A = away.)

Country	Opening 3	Middle 4	Closing 3
USA	H A H	H A A H	A A H
Mexico	A H A	A H H A	H H A
Trinidad & Tobago	A H A	H A H A	H A H
Costa Rica	H A H	A H A H	A H A
Honduras	A A H	A H H H	A H A
El Salvador	H H A	H A A A	H A H

One can use the patterns to divide the Hexagonal into three groups.  Group 1 teams play two consecutive home or away matches on three occasions of the final round.  This group contains USA and Mexico.  Teams in the second group (Trinidad & Tobago and Costa Rica) do not play any consecutive home or away matches during the Hexagonal.  In the third group, teams open the Hexagonal with two consecutive matches either home or away, and then three consecutive home or away matches in the middle segment of the Hexagonal.  This group is composed of Honduras and El Salvador.

It's important to point out that these clusters of consecutive home or away matches do not occur during the matchdays that are played four days apart (28 March/1 April, 6 June/10 June, 5 Sept/9 Sept, 10 Oct/14 Oct).  So none of the teams in the Hexagonal have the advantage, or disadvantage, of consecutive home or away matches during those periods.  There are some logistical disadvantages, however.  Trinidad & Tobago will have to make a long trip to the USA qualifier in Round 3, and another long trip to Mexico in Round 5.  USA will have a long trip from their home match to Trinidad & Tobago in Round 8, and Mexico have a flyaway date on the final matchday (also to Trinidad & Tobago).  The other nations are so close together that travel between them won't be much of an issue.  Overall, the long flyaway after a home qualifier would appear to affect Trinidad & Tobago more than USA or Mexico.  It might be an issue on the final matchday but Mexico may have already qualified by then.

If we assume that a team has a better chance of taking all points at home than they do on the road, it's possible to determine which sides have a "structural" advantage at different stages of the final round.  (I say "structural" because I'm just considering the likelihood that a team will reach a certain point total, without considering things such as the opponent, lineup, and so on.)  During the first three matches of the Hexagonal, USA, Costa Rica and El Salvador would have played more two home qualifiers.  In the middle four matches, Honduras have the biggest structural advantage while El Salvador have the biggest structural disadvantage.  And in the closing three matches, the USA, Costa Rica, and Honduras will have just one home match that will give them the best opportunity to secure all three points.

Considering the structural advantage that the USA, Costa Rica, and El Salvador have in the opening three matches, it is important that they take three points in their first qualifier.  A win would allow all three sides to get some breathing room in the Hexagonal and give them some margin for dropped points on the road.  For El Salvador, it is absolutely critical that they defeat Trinidad & Tobago in that first qualifier, because if they fail to do so, they will be forced to get points from their away matches and that will put their World Cup hopes in serious jeopardy.   Costa Rica will have to get as many points as possible at home and perhaps pick off one or two away points to ease the pressure going into the final three rounds.  USA will try to do the same thing, but it's important that they win their early home qualifiers.  The consecutive away qualifiers positioned around their fourth home qualifier could end up increasing the pressure on them in the closing rounds. 

I still believe that Mexico will qualify in the end, but their two away matches in the first three rounds will put their team and manager under pressure if results don't go their way.  A point or more from those two away matches would allow the pressure to ease somewhat going into their consecutive home matches in Rounds 5 and 6.  Honduras have a reputation for obtaining away victories, and if they can pull off at least one in the first three rounds, they will have a big advantage going into the middle rounds of the Hexagonal.  However, they also have a reputation of dropping home points against rivals they should beat, and it's worth noting that they do not face USA or Mexico in that stretch of three consecutive home matches.  Trinidad & Tobago will start on the back foot and stay there for the duration of the Hexagonal.  They would finish with two home matches in the final three qualifiers, but if they don't obtain points on the road those home qualifiers won't matter in the end.

Now I'm just looking at the order of matches in this analysis, but it's now time to consider the specific matchups in each round.  I'll do that in a later post in the New Year.

Comments

[Brian]

Normally, you are right, but there is quirk in the usually uniform CONCACAF schedule thanks to the US participation in the Confederations Cup.
Matchday 5 - US at Costa Rica will precede Matchday 4 (on 6/3).

So US plays H A H A H A H A A H, and CRC plays H A H H A A H A H A