World Cup Qualifying 2010 Review: The Hexagonal

[This is the fourth in a multi-part series on the 2010 World Cup qualifiers.]

The CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers started out with a preliminary round of 22, then another round of 24, followed by a group stage for 12.  We now reach the final group of six - USA, Costa Rica, Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, and Trinidad & Tobago.  I expected this Hexagonal to be the most competitive and closely-matched of all the previous Hexagonal groups.  It did not disappoint in the slightest.  The bare facts say that USA and Mexico clinched places in the World Cup finals with a round to spare.  In reality, everyone had to sweat as the fortunes of each participant swung on finely poised matches decided under dramatic circumstances.  How much closer could you get than a goal scored on the final kick of the final game in the final matchday that would change the destiny of two national teams?

The highly competitive nature of this edition of the Hexagonal can be demonstrated by looking at the numbers.  The minimum point total for an automatic place in the World Cup finals was 16 points, higher than the 1997 Hexagonal (14 points) but lower than the 2001 and 2005 editions (17 points each).  The fourth-place team won 16 points, which was the highest point total by a fourth-placed team in the Hexagonal (1997: 12, 2001: 14, 2005: 13).   The gap between first and fourth positions was a mere four points, the smallest margin ever in the final qualifying round.  This Hexagonal was also the first one in which four of the six teams won at least five matches.  So for the first time since the 2002 cycle, the top two teams were drawn into a fight for qualification places with two other sides that were playing at a high level.

The 2009 Hexagonal continued the trend observed during the 2005 final round: the supremacy of the home teams.  The below table shows the division of home/away wins and draws during the four Hexagonals.  After a home win percentage of 50% in 1997 and 2001, the advantage of the home team shifts to 2:3 in their favor.  The number of draws has held steady since 2001, and the number of away wins has declined after spiking in 2001. 

Hexagonal	Home Wins	Draws	Away Wins
1997	15	13	2
2001	15	6	9
2005	20	4	6
2009	20	5	5

A logical question to ask is what was behind the spike in away wins and the sharp decline in draws.  I think that what was going on between 2001 and now was that in 2001, Mexico and the USA were in transition periods with their national teams, and Costa Rica and Honduras were near the peak of their national team.  Costa Rica and Honduras were talented and had the firepower to take on USA and Mexico, but they didn't have the poise and experience required to kill off results, nor did they have the depth to overcome the inevitable injuries during the Hexagonal.  I believe these factors are illustrated in the high number of away wins.  By 2009, the USA and Mexico were in transition but this time from a high level, while Costa Rica had fallen off their peak in 2002, Honduras remained a powerful team, and El Salvador was gaining strength albeit off the pace of the top four.  The result was a greater number of home wins and slight differences in the number of draws and away wins from 2005 (but a larger difference from 2001). 

Now we transition from the numbers to a more qualitative look at the Hexagonal.  Compared to the 2005 cycle during which USA and Mexico had an easy time of it (USA qualified with four matches to spare, Mexico with three), the Big Two had to sweat through some difficult matches, not all of which were played on the road.  At the same time its competition was becoming very difficult to beat at home.  Honduras, after a bumpy start in their first two matches (both away), won three home qualifiers in a row and turned their campaign around.  Costa Rica also played themselves in contention by winning their home matches against USA and Honduras and then snatched three away points at Trinidad & Tobago.  Even El Salvador were difficult to beat at home -- they fought back from two goals down to draw Trinidad & Tobago, put the USA through hell for 75 minutes before conceding two late goals, and defeated Mexico on a late penalty.  The one side that was truly feeble at home was Trinidad & Tobago with their aging side.

In my opinion, the major themes of the Hexagonal were these:

If you shoot at the king, don't miss.  This Mexico national team was perhaps the weakest one fielded this decade, and they had exhibited a shocking fragility on the road.  (And not just the senior team, either.  The U-23 and U-20 teams failed to qualify for the world championships in the respective age groups when were played outside Mexico.)  Moreover, the sides with the talent to beat them -- USA and Honduras -- were at their strongest up front in many years.  A draw or a loss would have been crippling to Mexico's chances, and at the time there was serious talk in Mexico about whether El Tri could avoid the CONCACAF/CONMEBOL playoff.  Nevertheless, Mexico managed to win two difficult home qualifiers at Fortress Azteca, thanks in part to the timidity of their rivals.  The USA retreated in a shell after their opening goal and ceded the midfield to the Mexicans, and the Hondurans never came close to expressing their attacking ability.  There was a lost opportunity for both teams, and with Carlos Vela and Giovanni dos Santos becoming regular fixtures on the Mexican team, there may not be another opportunity in the next decade. 

You might also say the same thing about the USA.  They weren't as weak as Mexico, but there were some untested players in key positions, especially when first-string players were either injured or suspended.  The USA fell behind at home against Honduras, El Salvador, and Costa Rica yet came back to salvage points from all three (two wins and a draw).  One gets the feeling that Honduras can score goals in bunches, and they certainly looked like that in the opening ten minutes against the USA.  But they weren't as aggressive after the first goal, and the USA were able to claw back into the game.  The comebacks against El Salvador and Costa Rica were a testament to the USA's persistence.

Costa Rican implosion.  Costa Rica's national team arrived into the Hexagonal with a tailwind of confidence.  The scoring problems of the strikers appeared to be solved, and between Hurtado, Ruíz, and Myrie, the Ticos had plenty of options up front.  Unfortunately for Costa Rica, there was still a defense to consider, and that defensive line would let them down time and time again.  After the match against the USA, they proceeded to let in eight goals in their next three matches while going goalless at the worst possible time.  The march through the Hexagonal toward an automatic position ground to a halt.  Rodrigo Kenton, who had been hailed as a great coach by the Costa Rican press and fans, was dumped, and René Simões was brought in.  Even with the problems of transition and goalscoring, the Ticos were one kick away from being in South Africa.  Now, they are home and they will be without some mainstays of the national team squad when the next qualifying cycle begins in two years.

The emergence of young talent.  The transition period of certain national team presents a crisis for the national team and an opportunity  for the right young player who takes the initiative and grabs his opportunity.  That's always the most exciting thing to see during the Hexagonal.  Before his car accident, Charlie Davies of the USA had emerged as a player to watch for the future.  Carlos Vela and Giovani dos Santos consolidated themselves into the Mexican national team.  Osael Romero, Arturo Alvarez, and Rodolfo Zelaya were revelations for El Salvador.  Bryan Ruíz had a breakthrough year for club and country in 2009, but Celso Borges and Pablo Herrera also established themselves with regular appearances in the Costa Rican side.  Honduras and Trinidad & Tobago did not see as much young talent emerge into the senior side (perhaps the younger Palacios brothers for Honduras), and for Trinidad & Tobago this situation is more worrying.  Their old guard has departed from the international stage and their U-20 talent does not appear to be ready for the senior team. 

Last-minute drama.  Seven matches of the Hexagonal were decided in the final ten minutes of the game, and in three of those matches the tying or winning goal was scored in second-half stoppage time.  Almost all of these matches had a direct impact on the Hexagonal.  Honduras might have been able to clinch a direct place earlier -- or at least control their own destiny -- had they not conceded that late goal in Trinidad & Tobago.  The USA were on their way to a crippling defeat in El Salvador before their comeback in the final 15 minutes.  Mexico's resurgence would have taken a huge step backwards had they drawn their match against the USA.  And Jonathan Bornstein's stoppage time goal changed the World Cup destinies of Costa Rica and Honduras.

For me the outcome of the Hexagonal hinged on three matches:

Honduras vs. Costa Rica:  The first match of the second round-robin, and the second of three consecutive home qualifiers for Honduras.  Costa Rica looked to be cruising toward a return trip to the World Cup finals after consecutive wins over El Salvador, USA, and Trinidad & Tobago, with the away win over T&T being especially impressive.  Honduras, on the other hand, were trying to climb back into the race for the top 3.  Honduras tore Costa Rica apart, and the Tico defense melted away in the final ten minutes.  It was also during this time that Costa Rican sides were conceding heavy defeats in the Champions League -- and those sides contributed several players to the national team!  The match marked the start of Honduras' push into the top 3, and the ringing of the alarm bells in the Costa Rican media.

Costa Rica vs. Mexico: Mexico had started their recovery under Aguirre, but they still needed an away win to put their qualification fate in their hands.  The result was Mexico's best performance of the Hexagonal, as Vela, Guardado, and dos Santos shone to rout the Ticos in Saprissa.  Costa Rica were flat footed on their own turf; they had no answer for Mexico's speed and collective performance.  If Honduras rang the alarm bells, Mexico set off the sirens.  The match was the end of Rodrigo Kenton, and marked a realization among Costa Ricans that perhaps their team wouldn't appear in South Africa.

USA vs. Costa Rica:  There were a couple of matches that were more exciting and thrilling, but few other matches decided the fates of two other national teams.  On an emotional night in Washington, when the US team had to put aside their feelings for Charlie Davies, the US fell behind to two superb goals by Bryan Ruíz.  The Americans fought their way back into the match, and narrowed the margin to a goal.  Soon the match was drawing attention not only in Costa Rica, but also in El Salvador and all of Honduras.  And it came down to one headed ball, the last strike of the ball in the final match of the Hexagonal.  On that one header, euphoria and anguish switched owners.  Jonathan Bornstein will never have to pay for a meal or a vacation in Honduras again.

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