Tomorrow is the day of the FIFA ethics committee meeting, and its rulings will have significant implications on the governance of world soccer and especially that of the CONCACAF region. Already we're seen one casualty of the corruption investigations, as today Mohammed bin Hammam withdrew his campaign for the FIFA presidency. It is possible that the FIFA presidential election could be postponed, but I find it unlikely.
There have been some leaks as to the extent of the charges, and if this exposé in the London Daily Telegraph is accurate, I'm not sure how Warner and bin Hammam can survive in their posts. Not only are the bribes a significant amount, but they appear to be confirmed by several officials from Caribbean FAs (the article mentioned corroboration from officials with the Bahamas, Bermuda, Turks and Caicos, and Cayman Islands). Blatter's implication is that allegedly he knew about the payments but did nothing, which would violate the bylaws of the executive committee. That strikes me more as a sin of omission than one of comission, and it's very possible that the ethics committee will give Blatter either no punishment or a light one for this reason.
If the ethics committee exonerate Blatter, then I believe the election will go ahead and Blatter will win by acclamation. It would be nice if there really was a no-confidence vote, but I don't have any illusions about international sport politics (or international politics for that matter) and the fact is that Blatter still has a lot of friends in the power corridors of world football. They may not be European corridors, but so what? João Havelange leveraged his support in the Third World to wield an iron grip at FIFA in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. If the committee gives him a light sentence, then I think he will survive and be elected but he will be significantly weakened in Europe. Again, the "so what?" comment applies, but in that situation I believe there would be a not-so-small possibility of a split in world football. If the ethics committee drops the boom on Blatter -- very unlikely -- then all bets are off.
So what does this mean for CONCACAF? For starters, the Warner-Blazer rift is real. I don't see any way of patching up that relationship after Blazer went to the FIFA ethics committee with those allegations. Second, the USSF could wind up with even less political clout at CONCACAF than they have right now. Jack Warner has been making belligerent and bombastic statements in the wake of the allegations saying that there is a vendetta against him, that the Americans have it in for him, and that in the end he will remain CONCACAF president. Will this region stay together after tomorrow? In my opinion there aren't better options politically for the USSF, but at some point the big North American federations are going to be tired of being led around by the Caribbean nations that make up the balance of power. The Canadian and Mexican federations are watching from the sidelines, but I am certain that they are interested in the final outcome.