More people are becoming aware about the proposed changes to the World Cup qualifying procedure in CONCACAF. I had known that there had been some discussion of it (the Dodecagonal idea), but somehow I managed to miss the report that in May the CONCACAF ExCo had approved a change in the qualifying format pending FIFA approval.
The new format would have a qualifying round among the lowest-ranked CONCACAF associations, then a first group stage (8x4), a second group stage (4x4), and a final group stage (2x4). The top teams in the final groups advance to the World Cup finals, while the second-placed teams in each group would playoff to decide the third direct place. (The loser would enter the FIFA World Cup playoff, at this time against a South American team.) The qualified team would play 18 matches (20 if they come from the Caribbean minnows), which is the same amount of matches that they played in the 2006 cycle.
Despite being used since the 1998 qualifying cycle, The Hexagonal has accumulated quite a tradition among CONCACAF's World Cup qualifying formats. In the past, CONCACAF has held either qualification tournaments at a single site or conducted knockout rounds in Central America and the Caribbean feeding into a final group of four (1994) or even five teams (1990). To be sure, the USA and Mexico have dominated the Hexagonal since the beginning, but every qualifying cycle a new qualifier has emerged: Jamaica in 1997, Costa Rica in 2001, Trinidad & Tobago in 2005, and Honduras in 2009.
All that said, I am not surprised that there is now the impetus for a change, nor am I surprised to learn that Horace Burrell (head of the Jamaican FA) was one of those who proposed it. One of the impediments that the Caribbean nations face in their football development is the lack of meaningful matches not just for the players but also for the stadia in their countries. For the bottom countries, if they win the qualifying round, they would be guaranteed at least three home matches in subsequent rounds. The underside of this development is that these associations would also have to play at least three away matches should they go through to the group stage, and I think it's a very valid question whether they are capable of assuming that kind of expense. I hope for CONCACAF's sake that we don't see the return of national teams withdrawing in the middle of the qualifiers.
The biggest change will occur in the final round of the competition. With two final groups, it is almost certain that #1 and #2 in the region will be kept separate, and that means USA and Mexico. To get an appreciation of how much of a change this is, look at the list of official USA/Mexico matches from 1930 to 2005. Except for the World Cups of 1970, 1986, and 1994 (all hosted by USA or Mexico) and the 1990 World Cup (in which Mexico was barred for fraudulent youth registrations), USA and Mexico have always played each other in a World Cup qualifying cycle. On one hand, it could be potentially easier for both sides to qualify for a World Cup -- perhaps their most difficult games would be against either Honduras or Costa Rica away. On the other hand, the lack of high-level competition and a closely matched rival could ultimately prove counterproductive for either side.
So the apparent end of the Hexagonal would see additional home matches for more Caribbean nations, more lopsided results in the early group stage, easier qualification paths for the Big Two and the end of the USA-Mexico matchups in the qualifiers. Change is coming to CONCACAF, but not to the name of this site.
