HexagonalBlog

CONMEBOL: Four rounds left

The never-ending World Cup qualifying tournament in CONMEBOL is nearing the finish line.  Brazil could be the first side from the region to clinch a spot in the finals if they defeat Argentina in September, while Peru are the first team mathematically eliminated from World Cup contention. 

What really matters to CONCACAF viewers is battle for fifth place, because that side will play the fourth placed team from the Hexagonal in a home/away playoff for the final berth in South Africa.  As of now fifth place is occupied by Ecuador on 20 points.  However there are four teams within three points of Ecuador -- Argentina lie in fourth place on 22 points, Uruguay have 18 points, and Colombia and Venezuela have 17 points each. 

Here's how the five national teams will conclude the tournament:

Ecuador: Colombia (H), Bolivia (A), Uruguay (H), Chile (A)
Argentina: Brazil (H), Paraguay (A), Peru (H), Uruguay (A)
Uruguay: Peru (A), Colombia (H), Ecuador (A), Argentina (H)
Colombia: Ecuador (A), Uruguay (A), Chile (H), Paraguay (A)
Venezuela: Chile (A), Peru (H), Paraguay (H), Brazil (A)

With the exception of Venezuela, all of these teams will have to play a fellow competitor for the playoff spot over the final four games.  And that fourth and final automatic qualifying spot could be up for grabs too; Argentina's finishing schedule is not at all easy, and it could come down to that final match in Montevideo. 

CONMEBOL will have advantage in World Cup playoff

FIFA announced that the first leg of the CONCACAF/CONMEBOL playoff for the World Cup finals will be played in North America on 14 November, and the second leg in South America on 18 November.  The aggregate winner will be the 32nd and final team confirmed for South Africa in 2010.

The order of matches will give the CONMEBOL representative a huge advantage.  They will know what they will have to accomplish in that final leg, and they will have local conditions completely in their favor.  Right now, Uruguay are in fifth place with Colombia and Ecuador three points behind.  (Argentina are in fourth place, just two points ahead of Uruguay.)  It will be extremely difficult for the CONCACAF representative to advance if they don't have a solid lead after the first game.

World Cup playoff dates announced

FIFA have announced that the playoff between the 4th placed team in the CONCACAF Hexagonal and the 5th placed team in CONMEBOL's qualifying tournament will be on 14 and 18 November.   The European playoffs are on the same dates, so either survivor will have their foreign-based players with several days to spare.

On 2 June, the FIFA Congress will announce the order of the matches.   That ruling will go a long way toward indicating which confederation will have the upper hand in November.

Another look at South America

I was going to write this post immediately after the previous round, but I got overtaken by events.  At any rate, the South American qualifiers have passed the 2/3rd mark, and there is a clear separation between the top and bottom halves.  Paraguay, Brazil and Chile occupy the top three places, and Argentina lie in fourth.  (The top four qualify directly for the World Cup finals.)  Fifth place, and the berth into the CONCACAF/CONMEBOL playoff, belongs to Uruguay on 17 points, and their closest rivals are a match behind (Colombia and Ecuador). 

If Uruguay do pass through to the playoff, whoever finishes in fourth place in CONCACAF had better hope that the second leg is played in North America.  Uruguay are extremely difficult to beat in a winner-take-all scenario at Estadio Centenario.  The alternative could be a lot worse if Argentina get sucked into the playoff race.

Casting a glance at South America

The South American qualifying competition for South Africa 2010 is a quarter complete, and there some teams are in a better position than others.  Of interest to CONCACAF supporters is the fifth-place team, who will eventually play the fourth-placed Hexagonal team in a two-match playoff.  As 2007 comes to a close, Venezuela occupies fifth place with six points from four matches.  Uruguay and Chile are close behind on four points, and Ecuador might come back into the race if they can fix their leaky defense.  Peru and Bolivia are already off the pace and have a lot of work to do.

I think that fifth place will eventually be decided by Venezuela, Uruguay, and Chile, and Colombia might be drawn into that fight as well.  Of course, there is a very long way to go, and the CONMEBOL tournament won't resume until June.