HexagonalBlog

CONCACAF Semifinal Round, Match Day 1 - Your comments

As I said in a previous post, I'm currently on a beach somewhere and unable to follow the first day of the semifinal round of the CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers.  But this post is for you, dear readers.  Consider this an open post for commentary on the six matches in the semifinal round, and if you find any articles or posts that you think would be interesting to me, please link to them in the comments.

Enjoy the matches, and see you next Saturday.

Preview of CONCACAF Semifinal Round: Group C

Concluding the preview of the CONCACAF semifinal round with Group C.  This group contains Costa Rica, El Salvador, Haiti and Suriname.

This group can be summarized in four words:  Costa Rica got lucky.

Considering that this is a national team in transition, that could not win a friendly match for a year, and escaped a major upset against Grenada, Costa Rica have been gifted a very manageable group.  Rodrigo Kenton has quite a CV with club and national teams at home and abroad, but he has to find a (preferably young) successor to Paulo Wanchope and instill in his team a winning mentality on the road.  This group gives Costa Rica an opportunity to figure out how to win on the road; the opponents will get a lot more difficult if they progress to the Hexagonal.

El Salvador achieved a stunning victory over Panama, and they get this group as a reward.  And I'm not being sarcastic -- they have a real chance to advance to the Hexagonal.  Eliseo Quintanilla is their best player, but I'm not sure where their goals are going to come from in open play.  Nevertheless, they are better than Haiti and Suriname and that's good enough.  Talk about being blessed by one's opponents! 

Haiti and Suriname will fight it out for third place.   Haiti was a ball of nerves during their two matches against the Netherlands Antilles and needed an own-goal to advance.  They do have a sizeable foreign legion - Peguero and Noel are most familiar to American fans - that should give them an edge, but the gap between them and the Central American teams is too great.  Suriname sabotaged itself with its policy of barring foreign-based players from the national team.  Forget about the lineage of players who chose to play for the Netherlands, the kind of player they must be closing the door on now is not one that Suriname can do without.  Nevertheless, this team is wholly dependent on Clifton Sandvliet, and that is not enough.

Key games in this group?  I would say Haiti at home to El Salvador.  Anything less than a win ends the dream for the Haitians.  And El Salvador had better get full points against Haiti and Suriname at home.

In the end, here's how I think the group will end up:

1. Costa Rica
2. El Salvador
-----------------
3. Haiti
4. Suriname

Nine points -- and maybe even eight -- should be enough to advance from the group.  I foresee a group with a lot of draws, especially by sides not named Costa Rica, but very few away wins -- Suriname vs. Costa Rica is my best bet for an away victory.

Preview of CONCACAF Semifinal Round: Group B

Continuing the preview of the CONCACAF semifinal round with Group B.  This is the group with Canada, Honduras, Jamaica, and Mexico.

This is by far the most difficult of the three groups to predict, and one very good team is going to be eliminated when this round is complete.  Home form is everything, and any points obtained on the road will be absolutely precious.

Mexico is the best team in the group, but the distance between them and the other three is not that great.  The challenge will be how quickly Eriksson  gets accustomed to his squad, and vice-versa.  Already he has made some callups that only he can get away with, like Matías Vuoso (born in Argentina and now a Mexican citizen). 

Honduras is a very talented team, and in David Suazo has perhaps the most dangerous striker in CONCACAF.  Their home form in recent qualifying cycles has been their undoing -- they lost three home matches in the 2002 Hexagonal (gifting Mexico the third and final qualifying spot), and failed to win a home match in the 2006 semifinal round.   With players like Pavón, Guevara, and Núñez over 30, this is Honduras' best and last chance for a while. 

Canada has improved tremendously in the last five years, and I think that MLS has played a role in that improvement.  (When people talk about the effect that Major League Soccer has had on the US national team, sometimes it's forgotten the effect that it has also had on the USA's opponents.)  They have a solid goalkeeping tandem and their midfield has some quality players, but where will their goals come from?  I believe it will be important for them to get maximum points from home because they might struggle to score on the road.

Jamaica are not the same team that Rene Simoes led ten years ago.  In some ways it is better in that more of their players are in foreign leagues other than England and the USA.   But the novelty and romance are long gone -- the last qualifying campaign was a step backwards, and the national side is struggling to fill key positions in midfield and defense.  In a group where home form is critical, "The Office" is not as difficult a place to play as it once was. 

Key games?  In a group like this, all of them!  But if I have to point to some matches that could go a long way to determining the group's destiny, I would choose the matches on the second and sixth matchdays.  After the second matchday, Canada and Jamaica  would have two consecutive away games and would need maximum points from their home game, and the top two may still be undecided by the sixth matchday.  I do believe that Mexico will win all of their home qualifiers -- Azteca provides them with such a home advantage that it takes the pressure off road qualifiers.  Or at least it should.  In light of Mexico's home schedule, I would have to say that their home qualifier against Honduras is a big game, too.  They are taking a gamble by playing their other qualifiers away from Azteca.

In the end, I predict the group will go like this:
1. Mexico
2. Honduras
----------------
3. Canada
4. Jamaica

I see a lot of home wins and/or a lot of draws.  Away wins will be rare and just might clinch a top two finish, but with the parity in this group there could be more.  I don't know if nine points will be enough to advance from the group.

UPDATE and CORRECTION: Eric informed me in the comments that Mexico won't be playing all of their home qualifiers at Azteca.  A look at the CONCACAF website shows that Mexico will play Jamaica in Puebla and Canada in Tuxtla Gutierrez (Chiapas). 

Preview of CONCACAF Semifinal Round: Group A

The World Cup qualifiers start up in ten days' time, and I won't be here for Matchday 1 (more on that later), so it's time to make my analysis of the groups now.  Let's start with Group A.

Group A, in case you forgot, contains Cuba, Guatemala, Trinidad & Tobago and the USA.

In my opinion Group A is the most straightforward group of the three.  The USA has the best talent and organization of the teams in the group, and for the second consecutive qualifying cycle will not have to face Costa Rica in the semifinal round.  Moreover, they face two Caribbean sides and play Guatemala in a venue that isn't as intimidating as the one in Mazatenango.   The USA have enough talent to win all of their semifinal matches with the possible exception of the away match to Guatemala, but they have to be more clinical in front of goal.  They won't meet many sides as obliging as Barbados from here on out. 

Guatemala is a good but not great side.  The Chapínes have Pezzarossi and Ruíz up front and will rely on the Fredys (García and Thompson) and Ramírez to get the ball to them.  They are better than T&T and Cuba and at this stage that's good enough.  Away form is going to be crucial to their chances; I think they will need to take at least two points from their road matches to make sure of their progress.

Trinidad & Tobago scraped into the semifinal round and their train wreck of a campaign should come to an end in November.  The golden generation is all but gone, and the current collection of players (Kenwyne Jones excepted) isn't good enough.  They still haven't found a successor to Russell Latapy in the midfield, or Shaka Hislop in goal.  The ongoing saga between the government, the federation, Jack Warner (I repeat myself), and the players hasn't helped either.  The bulk of their points will likely come against Cuba. 

And speaking of Cuba, they've made some steady improvement over the last few qualifying cycles, despite losses due to defections, to make it to the semifinal round.  Reynier Alcántara, who plays striker,  is perhaps their most important player in a squad that is drawn predominately from three clubs in the domestic league.  I think this round is the limit of their abilities, but how many of the current crop of players will still be there in four years?  Or a year, even?

As for key matches, the first matchday will be critical to everyone's chances.  I see Guatemala-USA being important for the USA to achieve the right sort of momentum for the rest of the round.  Anything less than a point will put them under pressure to achieve a positive result in Cuba.  Cuba-Trinidad & Tobago is a true six-pointer; the Cubans really need to come out of that match with three points, and a draw would do T&T no good.  Trinidad & Tobago-Guatemala on the second matchday is absolutely critical for T&T; if they can only get a point they can effectively kiss South Africa goodbye.  Cuba-USA will be important to those looking for a political angle but no one else.  And Guatemala-T&T will clinch the Hexagonal spot for Guatemala, I just can't see T&T winning there.

So I see the group finishing like this:
1. USA
2. Guatemala
-----------------
3. Trinidad & Tobago
4. Cuba

Nine points should be enough to advance from the group, and I think the top two will be decided before the final matchday.

Agreement reached on T&T qualifier venue

Trinidad & Tobago's national team have one less problem to worry about after the national federation and the government reached an accord on World Cup qualifying matches at Hasely Crawford Stadium.  You may recall that Trinidad & Tobago had to play the home leg of their tie with Bermuda in Macoya because they refused to pay a $150,000 user fee or 10% of gate receipts to the Ministry of Sport.  Jack Warner had threatened to move T&T qualifiers to a neutral site outside the country if the fee was in place, but backed down from that stance later. 

Now, Warner gets what he wanted in the first place -- the user fee will be waived for World Cup qualifiers and the federation will pay to the government 8% of the gate receipts.  The user fee does apply to all other matches and is levied on a sliding scale based on the FIFA ranking of opposing national teams.  There's no mention of what the government would charge domestic clubs for CONCACAF Champions League matches. 

This standoff between the T&TFF and the national government is typical of the conflicts seen throughout CONCACAF between clubs and national teams and the local or national governments that own and operate the stadiums.  Granted there are many things associated with a stadium that must be paid in dollars, such as debt financing, electricity, or imported items, but the fees that are charged often are very unrealistic. 

Other changes around the region

Alexandre Guimaraes' dismissal wasn't the only coaching change around the region.  Several managers saw their contracts end as their national team's qualifying campaigns came to an end.  Barbados' FA released Eyre Sealy and Keith Griffith from their head coach and technical advisor positions, respectively.  (Actually, their contracts came to an end and the federation decided not to renew them.)  There was also an issue related to belated payments to the players that served as a sideshow to the campaign.

It looks like there might be changes to the head of Trinidad & Tobago's technical staff very soon, judging from the deterioration of the relationship between Francisco Maturana and the domestic hierarchy.  One has to wonder why Maturana would want to deal with this kind of infighting for much longer.  And the elephant in the room remains Jack Warner.

In contrast, Guyana looks like they will retain the services of national team manager Jamaal Shabazz.  Their focus will be on a long-term development of the national team and more systematic planning and preparation for the international tournaments, starting with the Digicel Caribbean Cup.  It's something that a lot of Caribbean countries talk about but few actually deliver, so good luck to Guyana.

UPDATE:  I missed this one - Hernán Medford has been sacked as the Costa Rica coach this afternoon.   To hear Medford tell it, he's relieved to be out of the door.  And given the rebuilding effort ahead of the Costa Rican national team, who can blame him?

Press clippings from the second round [Part II]

Barbados-USA was a dead rubber, and the less said about the match the better.  It made for a good treatment for insomniacs, although once again the match demonstrated that Freddy Adu is one of the few dynamic American players.  Barbados will take a smidgen of consolation from Emmerson Boyce cracking a shot against the crossbar, and might even view a 0-1 defeat as a bit of a victory, but in the end the Bajans will wait another four years for a shot at the world stage.

Bermuda's match with Trinidad and Tobago, like Panama's match with El Salvador, turned on a controversial moment when referee Carlos Batres allowed a Bermuda substitution to occur while the deciding T&T free kick was being taken.  That event will be bitterly protested -- likely to no avail -- but the focus in time must turn to moving forward from Sunday's massive display of public support and further developing the local game. Trinidad and Tobago, meanwhile, progress to the group stage with a strong feeling of relief, while local commentator Fazeer Muhammad, in a hard-hitting piece, wonders if he can endure another five months of melodrama between the players, federation, and government. 

The Mexico-Belize match concluded last Saturday, but the Belize Guardian has a report on the team's "world class" performance in the first leg.  The second leg went more to plan, and served as a showcase for Mexico's young players.  Consider it Carlos Vela's graduation to the senior team.  Now the focus has shifted to Mexico's opponents in the semifinal round, starting with Canada.  Eriksson will have as brief an introduction to the Mexican team as you can imagine: two days of training and no friendly matches scheduled before the next qualifier against Honduras in Azteca.  Given that Mexico's players will be a little unfamiliar with what Eriksson is asking them to do, it might do Honduras some good to go on the attack in that game.

Costa Rica have the luck of being in the weakest of the three groups, but they have very little time to prepare for that first match.  Because August 20 is not an "official" match day on the FIFA calendar, clubs do not have to release players until 48 hours before the match.  (Mexico's in the same situation.)  The president of the domestic league has offered to allow teams that have national team players to play their matches one day early, but a final decision hasn't been made. 

Guimaraes out at Panama

To the surprise of no one, Alexandre Guimaraes has been relieved of the technical director position with Panama's national team.  Here is the official press release from FEPAFUT, the Panamanian football federation, with the full text of the termination letter included.  There are reports in Panama's La Prensa and Mexico's Medio Tiempo that say about the same thing, but Medio Tiempo is reporting that FEPAFUT is preparing a protest of the referee's actions during the game and the crowd behavior.  An overturning of the result is not going to happen, so I don't know what the federation thinks it's going to accomplish by doing this.

So now that Guimaraes is gone, the next issue is whether Alvarado will join him out the door.

UPDATE (6/27, 8:36am):  So Guimaraes is saying that he really wasn't fired; the contract expired when Panama was eliminatred.  I know there really is a distinction, but in the end the outcome is the same. 

Press clippings from the second round [Part I]

I'm going to have to split the news roundup into two parts.  Today was a really long day at work and I don't have time to do much blogging before bedtime.  The other news will come tomorrow.

The biggest news from the weekend's matches has to be Panama's shock elimination at the hands of El Salvador.  After I completed the scoreboard updates of the second round, I stared for about 15 minutes at the El Salvador-Panama result, unable to believe what I had just witnessed.  The word 'shock' appeared a lot in the news websites of both countries.  While shock was combined with jubilation in El Salvador, it was mixed with sadness and recriminations in Panama. 

Let's start with El Salvador.  El Gráfico's main story about the comeback was titled "Hombrada!", which my Spanish dictionary tells me is an action corresponding to a valiant or manly effort. There are interviews with the heroes on the field and a longer chat with Carlos de los Cobos who never lost faith in his team even after Panama's early goal.  Those themes of heart and faith appear again and again in the news reports.  Prensa Gráfica called the result "Miraculous".  El Mundo calls it "Historic".  The support in the stands of the Cuscatlán was intense.  And the Salvadoran president comes forward with cash prizes for the goal scorers.

The mood was very different in Panama, made even worse by that away goal that forced the Salvadorans to score a seemingly unlikely three times to advance.  La Prensa described the match as the curse of Cuscatlán, as Panama was eliminated for the fifth time by El Salvador and the third time in the closing minutes. The Mexican official Marco Antonio Rodríguez was heavily criticized for the penalty that levelled the aggregate score, and when I watched the play on TV I felt that it wasn't a penalty.  I felt the ejection of Adolfo Machado was an even worse decision; the sole replay was from a distant camera, but I couldn't see where the Salvadoran player was touched in the face (which drew the ejection).  But would it have mattered had Blas Pérez scored the 0-2 at close range right in front of goal?

At any rate, the supporters suffered a deep disappointment which they took out on the players and coach when they returned to Panama this afternoon.  And now the recriminations are beginning against Alexandre Guimaraes (here and here) for his questionable mid-game adjustments and the lack of quality preparation, and the federation president Ariel Alvarado for having this debacle occur under his watch (here's one from a columnist at El Siglo and another from La Estrella).  Interesting to note that Julio Dely Valdes, who was the interim manager of the national team before Guimaraes, is currently an assistant coach at Málaga (recently promoted to the top flight in Spain).  He said that he would never coach the Panamanian national team again, but it's possible that a change at the top of the federation could induce him to change his mind.

One-third done in South America

With qualifying in CONCACAF about to enter the group phase, it's time to cast an eye on the CONMEBOL qualifiers for the World Cup.  The fifth-placed team in that region will play a two-match series against the fourth-placed team in the Hexagonal for a spot in South Africa.  After six of eighteen matches complete, fifth place is occupied by...Brazil?!  Yes, the one point gained from their recent qualifiers against Paraguay and Argentina, combined with Chile taking full points from their pair of matches, has moved the five-time world champions into the playoff slot on nine points.  It's very possible -- okay, very likely -- that Brazil will be back in the automatic qualification places by the end of next year, but in the meantime their current standing will cause some discomfort among the players, coaches, and supporters.

There are a number of sides that are tightly bunched around the fifth position -- Venezuela and Uruguay are within a couple of points, and Chile and Colombia must not feel too comfortable on ten points each. There is still a very long way to go.