HexagonalBlog

A review of the Hexagonal

Note:  This is the second post of a series of posts reviewing the Club World Championships, the CONCACAF final round of qualifying, and the demise of the San Jose Earthquakes.

This post is a long time coming, but when I started writing a draft of my review I thought it would be mooted by the World Cup draw, so I shelved it.  Now the draw has occurred, and I have some time in my schedule to write about the Hexagonal, so here it goes.

When I started a website about the Hexagonal in 2001 (not a very good website, but a learning experience nonetheless), I was genuinely excited about that tournament.  I thought that all of the teams in the final round (USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Honduras, T&T) had a legitimate shot of qualifying for Japan/Korea 2002, and I wanted to follow it as the tournament progressed.  Sure enough, all of the eventual qualifiers had to sweat during the process, some impressive unbeaten streaks came to an end (USA and Mexico's home streaks), and Honduras were so close to knocking Mexico out of the World Cup  -- which would have had implications for the seedings of the 2006 World Cup finals!

This edition of the Hexagonal did not have a similar effect on me.  In 2001, the USA and Mexico were in a transitional phase, and at the same time a number of Central American and Caribbean sides were entering their "20-year moments", that is, that period that occurs almost every 20 years when they have a collection of players capable of qualifying for the World Cup finals.  This time, because of a combination of lopsided groups in the semifinal round and a decline of some of those Central American/Caribbean teams, there was more of a consolidation of the Big Three teams at the top of the Hexagonal.  The addition of the playoff slot made things interesting at the bottom half of the table, but if that slot wasn't there the competition would have been over after the sixth matchday.

More should be said about the semifinal round, because the imbalance between the three groups greatly affected the quality of the Hexagonal.  There was a commentary on a website (don't remember the name, sorry) that explained the mechanics of the preliminary draw, but in the end we arrived at a relatively balanced group (USA, Jamaica, Panama, El Salvador), a ridiculously difficult group (Costa Rica, Honduras, Guatemala, Canada), and a ridiculously easy group (Mexico, St. Vincent & Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis, Trinidad & Tobago).   A switch between the smaller Caribbean islands and Honduras or Guatemala would have made the groups more balanced and a little more interesting.  But as I said before, the form of some of the teams wasn't as good as in 2002.  Poor Canada was never going to advance out of that group, which was a shame because I feel that they are an improving side under Frank Yallop.  Honduras and Jamaica underachieved from four years ago -- once again, it was Honduras' home performance that knocked them out of the World Cup, and Jamaica lost it when they gave up that late goal at home against Panama.

So in the Hexagonal we had the Big Three, a quadrenially underachieving side in Trinidad & Tobago, and two countries making their first appearance in the final round (Guatemala and Panama).  Panama were out of their depth over the course of the Hexagonal, but they did overachieve at certain times (the home draws against USA and Mexico, almost winning the Gold Cup in the summer).  Guatemala and Trinidad & Tobago were expected to battle for the playoff position, and after the 5-1 victory in Guatemala City it looked like another underwhelming Hexagonal for the Soca Warriors.  The hiring of Leo Beenhakker was a turning point for the Caribbean side, and he introduced a sense of discipline and teamwork that I have not seen before from a T&T side.  The 3-2 home victory against Guatemala transformed T&T's chances for the playoff, and gave them the inside track due to their (marginally) favorable schedule.   T&T's 2-1 victory at home to Mexico was perhaps the finest win in their history under enormous pressure, perhaps only surpassed by the 1-0 win in Bahrain the following month.  As for Guatemala, they lost Carlos Ruíz twice due to suspension, which may have made the difference in the home match against the USA.  In the end, Guatemala's defense let the team down at critical moments, such as the away matches against Costa Rica and Trinidad & Tobago.

This Hexagonal was not as strong as the previous edition's, so there was some opportunity for the Big Three sides to lose their focus and slip up.  To their credit, this did not happen, or at least did not happen in such a way to put them under pressure.

The closest of the Big Three to missing out of the World Cup was Costa Rica, which has had problems with managerial stability in the past.  They went through three managers this time, but such was the low quality of the group that they weren't threatened after the win against Guatemala.  They remain the only side in CONCACAF - at club and national team level - that can threaten the USA and Mexico  (ok, at home they're like that). 

For the USA, the only question at the beginning of the Hexagonal was whether the first team or a selection of replacement players would take the field.  After a labor truce was reached, the USA had the performance that I expected - five home victories, losses to Costa Rica and Mexico on the road, and better than average performance in Central America and the Caribbean.  It was enough to clinch qualification with three matches to spare, which was better than normal and gave Bruce Arena time to evaluate more players. 

I was most impressed with Mexico, even though in the end they lost first place on head-to-head matches with the USA.  I did not know if Mexico's easy semifinal group would cause them to lose their edge in the Hexagonal, but their away win in Costa Rica set the tone for their style of play.  Ricardo LaVolpe was under a lot of pressure from the press and from Hugo Sánchez during the qualifiers, but he has really been instrumental in getting his players to perform at a high level wherever they play.  (BTW, is it not the least bit ironic to see an Argentine - especially one who played in the '78 World Cup - calling his coaching project "The Process"?)  The only disappointing match for Mexico had to be the away match against the USA, because it was so atypical to their performance over the Hexagonal.  But overall it was an excellent performance by Mexico and their players and staff.  Right now I think the USA and Mexico are at parity -- the USA can beat Mexico on a consistent basis at home, but Mexico have performed better against European opposition and have such a huge advantage at Azteca that I'd give them a slight edge.  With the talent coming up from the U-17 levels on both sides, CONCACAF dominance will be split between the USA and Mexico for years to come.

 

Now about my own predictions for the Hexagonal.  I went back through my previews for each round (I didn't make one for Round 7) and checked my own match predictions against reality,  and they resulted being 66% accurate.  Not that great, but not bad either.  My predictions were off for the first couple of rounds, when I didn't have much faith in the USA getting a good result in T&T given their labor troubles or in Mexico getting a positive result in Costa Rica.  With more information, my predictions started to improve with each round, as all good models should, with the exception of the final round, when everything got turned on their heads.  In summary, it was easier to make calls in this Hexagonal because the quality of the teams was not as evenly distributed as last time.

To conclude, this Hexagonal wasn't as interesting or balanced as last time, but it was good to see the USA finish in the top spot and Trinidad & Tobago qualify for the World Cup finals.  My comments on the finals draw are well known  - basically, I don't expect Germany 2006 to be as kind to CONCACAF sides as Japan/Korea 2002 - but I hope that the teams in this region show how much they have improved from the 1990s and 2002. 

The Hexagonal, Round 10

Trinidad & Tobago 2-1 Mexico

In an atmosphere as electric as that fateful day 16 years ago, it looked for over an hour that Trinidad & Tobago were out of the World Cup.  And when Stern John telegraphed his penalty shot into Jesús Corona's chest, more than a few Trinidadian supporters felt that it would end the same way as 1989.  That missed opportunity seemed to change the momentum of the game, and seven minutes later Guillermo Franco sent a diagonal pass to Jaime Lozano on the left side, who delicately chipped the ball across the face of goal over Kelvin Jack's head into the far corner.  What a goal!!  The strike definitely silenced the crowd, but you could still hear the steady beating of tropical drums in the stadium.  Then close to halftime, Whitley's thunderbolt slammed against Corona's right post, and John knocked the ball into the net off his shins.  (I thought it was offside, and Andrés Cantor definitely thought it was offside, but today's edition of ESTO didn't mention the controversy surrounding the goal at all.)  Back to where we started, and all of Trinidad & Tobago returned to life.   

T&T pressed for the winning goal in the second half, and on the hour mark a dispossession in the Mexican third left John free to score the most important goal of his life - a bullet of a shot from outside the area, over the outstretched arms of Corona and into the top shelf of the net.   All of Hasely Crawford shook, and all of Trinidad & Tobago vibrated as well.  T&T put their foot off the accelerator for about 15 minutes after that goal; Mexico could have scored if they tried harder and perhaps had their more experienced lineup on the field.   Nevertheless, the islanders almost scored again when Yorke's backheel hit the post, and the midfield led by Latapy and Whitley dominated possession in the final minutes.

Trinidad & Tobago showed something that I have not seen from them in the last two qualifying tournaments - steel.  I caught a little of the discussion of the match on Fútbol de Primera today, and one of the hosts remarked that Leo Beenhakker did a superb job of getting composed play from his squad, even when his staff had to have known that results were not going their way.  It was a very disciplined performance, and I have been waiting for Yorke, Latapy, John, Hislop, and the other veterans to lead from the front.  They did that tonight, and if they can do this for 180 more minutes, they could be on their way to Germany.  And then they could be the third - yes, third - Caribbean team to reach the World Cup finals.  Isn't Haiti still a Caribbean country??

Mexico, on the other hand, had a disappointing match apart from Lozano's art, but hopefully perspective will reign.  At least it didn't come down to the final game this time.  But knowing how much Lavolpe and the rest of the FMF wanted to finish first in the Hexagonal, this result brings out my inner Nelson Muntz.

Guatemala 3-1 Costa Rica

The perfect start, a fantastic goal, the right result...and it still wasn't enough.   For the second time in as many matches the chapínes jumped on the scoreboard early, this time through a goal by Ponciano.  García followed with a well-taken shot from long range, and Ruíz scored Guatemala's third on a terrific overhead kick.  News filtered in of Lozano's goal in Port-of-Spain, and the crowd erupted.  Costa Rica got one back through Myrie's goal five minutes into the second half, and then John's second goal for Trinidad took Guatemala's destiny out of their hands.  Costa Rica wasn't going to come back, not with their second-tier lineup, so all ears were pinned to the latest in the Caribbean.  The final whistle in Port-of-Spain broke the hearts of millions of Guatemalans and brought young men to tears.

Missing out on the World Cup is always going to be hard, but contending for a playoff spot in their first ever Hexagonal was perhaps the best-case scenario for Guatemala.  Aside from Ruíz and Plata, the talent level isn't as high as it is in other similar-sized countries in the region.  Ramón Maradiaga was probably correct in his assessment of his side, but if he really had done all that he could, perhaps he should go back to his native Honduras, where he does have a collection of players who can compete in the World Cup.

USA 2-0 Panama

This match really didn't matter, and I only watched bits and pieces of it, so I'll be brief.  Kyle Martino scored the first goal from long range six minutes into the second half, then Twellman scored six minutes later.  Julio Dely Valdes missed a penalty late in what was his and his brother's final match for Panama.

The final Hexagonal standings:

USA              22 +10
Mexico        22 +13
Costa Rica  16 +1
T&T               13 -5
Guatemala 11 -2
Panama         2 -17

Ninety Minutes from the End

As I'm writing this, it's 17 minutes in the first half -- Guatemala is leading Costa Rica 2-0, and Trinidad & Tobago is tying Mexico 0-0.   The Univision Telemundo commentators are wondering if T&T's staff even knows that their team is on the way out; they are playing quite relaxed right now.

Just as I wrote that, John sent T&T's first shot over the bar, and then Yorke just missed a through ball into the box.  So maybe they're starting to pick up the pressure.

Man, my prediction about the Guatemala match isn't panning out at all. 

It will be a very interesting hour and a half.

7:32pm - Now it is Guatemala 3 - Costa Rica 0 !!!  Goal from Carlos Ruíz!!!  Guatemala's going to win; now everything depends on what happens in Port-of-Spain.

7:36pm - A penalty for Trinidad & Tobago!!  Oh my goodness, who's going to take it....?

It will be Stern John....

and.....

HE MISSED IT!!!!!!!!!  Low to the ground, Corona makes the save!!!!

Let me talk about the apparent foul that drew the penalty...there was a Trinidadian player brought down in the box, but it wasn't 100% clear if the Mexican player (Huiqui) pulled him down.  The referee made the call almost immediately.  I still can't believe that someone like Yorke or Latapy didn't take it.

Anyway, T&T better recover quickly if they want to continue in the World Cup.  Mexico has the better play right now.

7:42pm - Univision's Telemundo's sideline reporter just said that there is no radio communication inside the T&T dugout.  So they very likely don't know what's going on.

And Lozano............... GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL for Mexico !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  A beautiful chip from the corner of the box, across the area over the head of the Trinidadian 'keeper Jack underneath the far corner of the crossbar. 

That missed penalty has really changed the tempo of the match; T&T looked to be a bit stronger, but after that miss the momentum shifted to Mexico.

7:47pm - It is deathly quiet in the Hasely Crawford stadium right now.  You can hear some drums playing but that's about it.

But that will wake them up!!!!!!  GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL for Trinidad & Tobago!!!!!!!   Stern John collected Whitley's rebound that cannoned off the post, but the replays showed that he was offside.   The Univision Telemundo commentators were quite emphatic about that, and for a second I thought the goal would be disallowed.  I really need to check the replay again.

7:52pm - The referee blows for halftime.  It's T&T 1-1 Mexico, and Guatemala 3-0 Costa Rica.

Let me catch my breath....we're in for a very dramatic second half.

And by the way, it's 0-0 between the USA and Panama.

8:00pm - I had a chance to look at the penalty and Trinidad's first goal.  The foul is really iffy; I'm not sure if Huiqui pulled the striker (Whitley?) down.  But John telegraphed his shot all the way, and Corona reacted well.  The goal was offside - John was a step outside the final defender - but the assistant referee appeared to be on line with John and not the defender.

8:12pm - It's now 3-1 to Guatemala.

8:26pm - GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL for Trinidad & Tobago !!!!!!!!!! What a strike by Stern John outside the box!!!  And now T&T is on the way to the playoff!

8:46pm - Nine minutes to go....

Seven minutes to go... and Yorke hits off the post!!

8:54pm - One minute to go...Guatemala has just won, and now they wait.

8:56pm - And it's all over in Port-of-Spain!  Trinidad & Tobago have won!!  And it's on to the playoff for the Soca Warriors!

----

What a dramatic two hours this has been....for over an hour Guatemala was still in the World Cup and Trinidad & Tobago was out, only for the islanders to turn things around with a half hour to go.  That first goal by John will last long in the memory of millions of Guatemalans, and the second goal in the minds of millions of Trinidadians.

CORRECTION:  As Brian pointed out in the comments, I misspoke - the match was on Telemundo, not Univision.  And my cable system doesn't even get Univision!  I've corrected the errors above.

Preview, Round 10

Trinidad & Tobago v. Mexico
Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port-of-Spain
Referee: José Pineda (HON)

It comes down to one game for Trinidad & Tobago.  One more home game, just like that game in 1989.  Now, instead of needing a draw against the USA, the Soca Warriors now need a win to ensure their spot in the AFC/CONCACAF playoff.  It won't be easy -- Mexican officials from Lavolpe to de la Torre have said that first place in the Hexagonal is a top priority, and even without Borgetti, Blanco, Márquez and others it will still be a formidable lineup.  Trinidad & Tobago are feeling confident, and the expectation on the island is intense.  It's either the end of the road for Yorke, Latapy, and others, or the beginning of a two-match series to a trip to Germany.

Probabilities for victory (based on latest ELO Ratings): T&T 19.4%, Mexico 80.6%.
Prediction: Score draw (Trinidad & Tobago to playoff).

Guatemala v. Costa Rica
Estadio Mateo Flores, Cd. de Guatemala
Referee: Brian Hall (USA)

After a demoralizing defeat in Mexico, Guatemala must focus on their must-win game against Costa Rica.  However,  the mood in the training camp has been somber, not just because of Saturday's match, but also because of devastation caused by Hurricane Stan.  The national mood has also been reflected in the ticket sales - only 8,000 as of Monday evening.  Costa Rica, still in the afterglow of qualification, will rest seven starters from the previous match.  The Ticos still have their pride, and won't be easy obstacles to the three points that Guatemala needs.  For me, there's not that big a dropoff from Wanchope and Solís to Saborío and Gómez.   Expect a nervous match from the Guatemalans, especially if it is tied late in the second half.  And eyes and ears will be very attentive to any news from Port-of-Spain.

Probabilities for victory:  Guatemala 31.5%, Costa Rica 68.5%.
Prediction: Draw (Guatemala eliminated).

USA v. Panama
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro
Referee: Gilberto Alcalá (MEX)

This match means nothing except to the managers and players.  Arena wants to give more MLS-based players international experience and an opportunity to state their case for Germany.  Hernández wants to start work on the next generation of Panamanian players.  The match will mark the end of an era as the Dely Valdez twins will play their final match for Panama.

Probabilities for victory:  USA 93.0%, Panama 7.0%.
Prediction:  USA win.

The Hexagonal, Round 9

Costa Rica 3-0 USA

In a steady rain and on a plastic carpet, Costa Rica swept aside a makeshift USA team on their way to a third appearance in the World Cup finals - now joining Mexico and the USA as the only CONCACAF teams to qualify for three World Cups.   Beasley, Convey and company were unable to take control of the midfield, and the Costa Rican midfield (led by Ronald Gómez) stamped their authority on the game.  It took over half an hour for the Ticos to translate their dominance into goals, but the breakthrough happened when Saborío was sent in alone against Howard.  His shot was blocked by the 'keeper, only for Wanchope to pounce on the rebound and become Costa Rica's leading goal scorer.   

Gómez was perhaps the best player on the field during the match, but the substitute Carlos Hernández had to have been the best player in the second half.  Just minutes after Hernández came on, he scored a well-taken goal from outside the area.  Now the party could begin in Saprissa, and all across the country.  Hernández's second strike - a rising shot from outside the area that cannoned underneath the crossbar - was an exclamation point to a historic night.  USA had a chance to make it 2-1 ten minutes before, but Twellman's header was snatched off the line.  It might have changed the final score, but not Costa Rica's qualification (already ensured by other results that night).   The final whistle brought huge celebrations inside the stadium, and fireworks and street parties from Liberia to Puerto Limón.

In the midst of these celebrations, it's hard to imagine that the Ticos only managed to get into the semifinal round on the backs on an away goal in Havana.  Despite the turmoil so typical of too much of Central American football - Guimaraes was the third coach in the campaign after Sampson and Pinto - Costa Rica are back on the world's biggest stage.  As for the USA, this match served to allow the MLS-based players to gain experience in a hostile environment, but I have to agree with Marcelo Balboa's comment that none of the players really helped themselves by their performance.  The national league has been a positive influence of the national team pool since its creation, but it still has some challenges that manifests itself in international play: the lack of intensity outside the playoffs (and a few other matches), and the lack of creative American midfielders.

Panama 0-1 Trinidad & Tobago

An experimental Panama side filled with debutantes (their youngest player on the field was 16) made life difficult against Trinidad & Tobago before Stern John lashed a loose ball into the net at the hour mark.  Despite some fine passing from the Panamanian youngsters, there were few chances on goal in the match, and a nervous T&T side struggled to create their own.  A match like this would  come down to an error in the back, and John had a golden chance to make it 2-0 at the end but his shot was saved off the line. 

After three rounds of the Hexagonal, Trinidad & Tobago had only one point - three behind Guatemala - and had just sacked Bertille St. Clair in favor of Leo Beenhakker.  They looked doomed at that point, but thanks to three additional wins they remain alive for a playoff spot.  However, they need one more win -- against Mexico in Port-of-Spain.

Mexico 5-2 Guatemala

"Farther than ever", cried Guatemala's Siglo XXI in Sunday's paper.  And how close Guatemala were to a famous result!  They got the perfect start when Carlos Ruíz scored after less than 100 seconds and put the crowd at Estadio Alfonso Lastras into silence.  The first half was difficult for Mexico, yet after 20 minutes Kikín Fonseca combined with Gullermo Franco to level the scores.  In the second half Kikín hit the mark twice to apparently kill the match, but Guatemala clawed back when Ponciano took advantage of a mis-marking in the box to head the ball past Corona.  The chapínes nearly tied it shortly after, but Ruíz missed a golden opportunity.  It was left to Kikín to finally end the match as a contest, first with a great individual effort, and then with a simple tap-in thanks to Franco.

A matter of pride for Mexico - back in first place in the Hexagonal - and a matter of vindication for Lavolpe after the calumny he took in the press for picking the naturalized Mexican Franco.  In Guatemala, even more despair and anger at the team's unwillingness to attack with the lead.  The Mateo Flores stadium will be a very tense environment on Wednesday, in a match that Guatemala knows that it must win.

After the penultimate round:

Mexico        22  +14
USA              19   +8
Costa Rica  16  +3
T&T               10  -6
Guatemala   8  -4
Panama         2  -15

Preview, Round 9

USA v. Costa Rica
Estadio Saprissa, San José
Referee: Benito Archundia (MEX)

It is not easy to take points from Costa Rica at home, especially in the case of the USA.  They have lost their last four qualifiers in the Central American country, and over the history of World Cup qualifiers have only drawn on two occasions.  Fortunately for the Americans they have already qualified for Germany and can afford to use this match to look at other players.  It will definitely be a trial by fire for the stateside-based American players, as only Eddie Pope has played in Costa Rica before.   I think the chances for a draw or a US victory rely on the performance of DaMarcus Beasley and Bobby Convey in midfield.  Without Donovan or Reyna in the middle, they will be asked to take on more of the creative responsibilities.  It will also be important to see how the midfield links up with Twellman, Ching et al., and how the defenders communicate and distribute well in an environment unlike any other seen in CONCACAF qualifying.

On the other side of the ball, Costa Rica only needs a win (and maybe not even that) to join Mexico and the USA as the only CONCACAF countries to earn at least three trips to the finals.  All of their major players are healthy and in the lineup, and the mood in the training camp has been relaxed for a change.  Meanwhile, an entire nation holds its breath and waits to celebrate.

Probabilities for victory (based on current ELO ratings): Costa Rica 55.9%, USA 44.1%.
Prediction:  Costa Rica win (qualifies for World Cup finals).

Mexico v. Guatemala
Estadio Alfonso Lastras, San Luís Potosí
Referee: Peter Prendergast (JAM)

Ricardo Lavolpe can also afford to give other players a look now that Mexico is in the finals, but even doing that he couldn't stay away from controversy.  His call-up of Argentine-Mexican Guillermo Franco caused a firestorm in the press, and there will be very close attention to his performance should he play.  Mexico's only real motivation is to stay at the top of the Hexagonal - Guatemala's motivation is to get closer to clinching a spot in the AFC/CONCACAF playoff.   Carlos Ruíz is back in the lineup after a second suspension in the Hexagonal.  Ramón Maradiaga will need him and Juan Carlos Plata in order to deliver the surprise his team desperately needs.   Even with a second-string Mexican side away from Mexico City, it will be a very tall order.

Probabilities of victory: Mexico 91.9%, Guatemala 8.1%.
Prediction: Mexico win.

Panama v. Trinidad & Tobago
Estadio  Rommel Fernández, Cd. de Panamá
Referee: Mauricio Navarro (CAN)

Panama's participation in the Hexagonal is now restricted to spoiler.  Trinidad & Tobago know that a win and a Guatemala loss would give them the inside track for the playoff.  It is good to see Yorke and Latapy taking strong leadership roles -  this is really what the Soca Warriors have been missing for so long.  The Panamanians will use this match to give their young players some World Cup experience.  They won't feel that they have much to lose, but they will play a much more experienced squad that does.

Probabilities of victory: Panama 66.1%, Trinidad & Tobago 33.9%.
Prediction: T&T win.

News from the Hexagonal

After a brief interlude with the Champions' Cup preliminaries and the U-17 World Cup, it's time for the final stretch of Hexagonal matches.  What's going on throughout the region?

• The USA will bring an experimental squad to San José for Saturday's match against Costa Rica.  Most of the players will be from MLS clubs, with league leaders San Jose Earthquakes providing four.  It's definitely a squad complete with players who will fight for a roster spot in Germany, such as Twellman, Quaranta, Convey, and Hartman.  Matches in Costa Rica have tended to be trials by fire, so it will be instructive to see how the players respond.
• Seven Costa Rican players have yellow cards entering the match against the USA, but it's really a moot point if the Ticos win on Saturday.
• In Guatemala, it looks like fans and players have conceded the third automatic spot to Costa Rica and are focusing on the playoff spot.  And if you talk to some fans, they appear to believe that the best chance to qualify for a World Cup has come and gone.  Nevertheless, some the chapín players are showing an optimistic attitude heading into the match at San Luís Potosí.
• Mexico has started its preparations for the two qualifiers at their training ground near the capital.  All of the attention, however, is focused on the U-17 team, for obvious reasons.
• T&T's national team arrived in Panama to take the already eliminated canaleros.  Except for Dwight Yorke, all of the  foreign-based players have arrived.  As for Panama, the team can only play for pride, and the focus in the press has turned to baseball.

The Hexagonal, Round 8

Mexico 5-0 Panama

Wilkommen, Mexiko!!   So said Mexico's   ESTO the day after the game.  And it's on to Germany after an opening Caribbean vacation and a highly effective Hexagonal.  Panama was never going to offer any resistance; the only question was how many goals Mexico would score.   It took half an hour for Mexico to open the scoring, but the canalero resistance became more like a sieve in the second half as four different Mexican players scored. 

So despite all of the controversies with Lavolpe, doping, Blanco, Sánchez, and the FMF, Mexico qualified with two matches to spare, which is a huge improvement from 2001.  And Lavolpe played kiss-and-make-up with his critics, so it looks like his job is safe - for now.    Panama would need maximum points from their last two matches and win by at least 13 goals to enter the playoff spot, so it's safe to say that they're eliminated.

Costa Rica 2-0 Trinidad & Tobago

It had to be won and it was.  Costa Rica took advantage of the home conditions to put themselves within two points of the final automatic qualifying spot.  The early goal by Saborio settled their nerves (as well as those watching throughout the country), and Centeno's strike at the beginning of the second half settled the matter.  The ticos are calm and know that either a win against the USA or dropped points by Guatemala would put them in the finals; the Soca Warriors are still in the running for the playoff spot but can't afford any more slip-ups.



Guatemala 0-0 USA

Bruce Arena placed a primarily MLS-based side on the pitch (aside from Hahnemann and Convey), and while they didn't play great, they didn't play badly and left Guatemala with a point.   How Guatemala missed Carlos Ruíz!  They really needed his creativity in attack and ended up playing overly cautious.  Even so, both teams came close to scoring - Convey hit the crossbar on a free kick, and Plata hit the post just before second-half  stoppage time.  The point will give Guatemala some separation from T&T, but they have the tougher finish to the Hexagonal and will  rue the two points they lost.

The table after 7 matches:

USA               19  +11
Mexico         19  +11
Costa Rica   13     0
Guatemala    8   -1
T&T                 7   -7
Panama         2   -14
 

Preview of Round 8

Mexico v. Panama
Estadio Azteca, Cd. de México
Referee:  Brian Hall (USA)

Mexico is in some disarray, and the coach is under fire - only God knows why.  Today the clubs called for unity, but for how long considering that this guy is in the wings?  Even after the loss to the USA, Mexico still needs just one more point to claim their place at the World Cup finals.  And who stands in the Mexicans' path?  Panama, who have all but conceded their elimination from further action in the World Cup.  And Mexico is playing at home, where they have only lost one qualifier.  There's not much interest in the match (judging from ticket sales) because the Mexican fans are already seeing the match as a foregone conclusion.  As they say, the customer is always right.

Luis Tejada and Alberto Blanco are out of the Panamanian lineup due to yellow cards.

Probabilities of victory (based on current ELO Ratings):  Mexico 98.7%, Panama 1.3%.
Prediction:  Mexico win (Mexico qualify for World Cup finals, Panama eliminated).

Costa Rica v. Trinidad & Tobago
Estadio Saprissa, San José
Referee: Carlos Batres (GUA)

A win by Costa Rica will almost guarantee them a place in the CONCACAF/AFC playoff; a loss would tighten stomachs from San José to Port-of-Spain.  Guimaraes is relaxed; Beenhakker isn't too keen on the fake grass.  Trinidad & Tobago will not be able to play a long ball strategy on this field, and will have to pass well and finish quickly.  Their big question marks throughout the tournament have been in midfield -- can Latapy repeat his heroics of the Guatemala match?  And can Yorke make an impact at last?  Costa Rica haven't lost a qualifier to Trinidad & Tobago since 1986, and they have the momentum and crowd support to maintain that streak.

Avery John (T&T) is suspended due to yellow cards, and Alexandre Guimaraes (CRC) will have to watch the match from the stands after being sent off last week.

Probabilities of victory: Costa Rica 86.3%, T&T 13.7%.
Prediction:  Costa Rica win.

Guatemala v. USA
Estadio Mateo Flores, Cd. de Guatemala
Referee: Marco Rodríguez (MEX)

Now that the USA have qualified for Germany, almost all of the European-based players were given a well-deserved break save for Convey and Hahnemann.  However, any team with Landon Donovan will have to be taken seriously.   The question that Bruce Arena hopes to answer is, How good are the MLS-based players under real conditions in a hostile match environment?  It should be a better test of their ability than that match in Madrid.  As for Guatemala, they have to get the heartbreaking loss in Trinidad out of their heads and focus on winning this game.   This is the wrong time to have Carlos Ruíz out due to yellow cards (for the second time in this tournament).  They will have to turn instead to Plata, Villatoro, and El Pando.

Probabilities of victory: Guatemala 19.3%, USA 80.7%.
Prediction:  Score draw.
 

The Hexagonal, Round 7

USA 2-0 Mexico

YES!!!  The USA become the first team from the region to qualify for Germany, and it doesn't get any better than to clinch qualification in the clásico against the Tri.  There was too much riding on this match to allow for flowing soccer - the match was very physical and the flow was choppy.  Mexico seemed content to absorb all of the pressure rather than force the initiative, which was not what they did in their previous away matches.  It only made sense that both goals were scored from set-pieces.  First, Oguchi Onyewu's header off an Eddie Lewis free kick hit the crossbar and Ralston was present to redirect the rebound into the net.  Five minutes later Claudio Reyna took a short corner and sent in DaMarcus Beasley into the box, who curled the ball around Osvaldo Sánchez into the far side netting.  It was celebration mode after that for the Americans and their fans in Columbus Crew Stadium.   Between this match and my alma mater's win in their clásico on the Alabama plains, it was a great weekend for me!

Any USA-Mexico match wouldn't be complete without the jawing between the two sides.  Landon Donovan's assessment of Mexico was short and succinct, but it would have been better if he had actually made more of an impact in these matches.   Ricardo Lavolpe wasn't too impressed by the way the USA played, but what does it say about his side to get beat by girls?  Nevertheless, Mexico still needs one point to qualify, which they should get without much trouble against Panama.  All of this talk about getting rid of Lavolpe is nuts -- someday the FMF and Mexican press and fans will realize that losing to the USA is not the disastrous result that they think it is.

Trinidad & Tobago 3-2 Guatemala

What an epic six-pointer these two teams played in Port-of-Spain.  Russell Latapy - the little magician - was called back into duty, and he brought the Soca Warriors back into the game with a weaving run and a well-taken goal.  The final heroics were supplied by Stern John, who scored twice in the final three minutes to complete a dramatic evening.  Guatemala still holds fourth place on the strength of their 5-1 win in Guatemala City, but it truly is game on with three matches to go.  The loss of Carlos Ruíz for yellow card accumulation (his second of the Hexagonal) could not have come at a worse time.


Panama 1-3 Costa Rica

The dream ends for Panama as Costa Rica pick up their first away win of the Hexagonal.  With the draw, Costa Rica take sole possession of the third and final automatic qualifying position.  The ticos started out slow, but the floodgates opened just before the interval when Saborío scored, followed by Centeno and Gómez in the second half.  It's not a good sign when you're dependent on a 38-year-old for your goal scoring, even if that 38-year-old is one of the Dely Valdés brothers.  But thanks Panama for showing that there's more to sports down there than baseball.

So after six matches....

USA               18 +11
Mexico         16 +6
Costa Rica   10  -2
Guatemala    7  -1
T&T                  7  -5
Panama          2  -9